高普考/三四等/高員級◆英文題庫下載題庫

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Corporations livenand die by ideas. Many enterprises have used Web-based technologies, likenblogs, wikis, and social networks to gather thoughts as part of thendecision-making process. Now executives say they are harnessing a new Webntool, called “prediction markets.” They use these markets to transform thencreation and implementation of ideas inside their companies—by tapping thencollective insight of the workforce. These markets have often been morenaccurate than professional pollsters or market researchers. Seeing thenpotential of prediction markets, companies like Genera...

【完整文章】

Corporations livenand die by ideas. Many enterprises have used Web-based technologies, likenblogs, wikis, and social networks to gather thoughts as part of thendecision-making process. Now executives say they are harnessing a new Webntool, called “prediction markets.” They use these markets to transform thencreation and implementation of ideas inside their companies—by tapping thencollective insight of the workforce. These markets have often been morenaccurate than professional pollsters or market researchers. Seeing thenpotential of prediction markets, companies like General Electric andnHewlett-Packard are using them to try to improve forecasting, reduce risk, andnaccelerate innovation. Corporate prediction markets work like this:nplayers—employees and potential outsiders—make their wagers over the Internetnusing virtual currency, betting anonymously. They bet on what they thinknwill actually happen, not what they hope will happen or what the boss wants. The payoff for the most accurate players is typically a modest prize, cash, ornan iPod. The idea behind predication markets is that the collected knowledge ofnmany people will almost surely be more accurate than that of an individual or ansmall group or even experts. While prediction markets are gettingnpopularized, however, an important issue remains. That is , whethernprediction markets are mainly an innovative way to gather information fromnemployees or a source of reliable answers. More testing of the concept is innneed to see how it goes.

【文章翻譯】

公司的存亡取決於見解。許多企業已使用如網誌、維基和社交網絡等網絡技術來收集一些想法以作為決策過程的一部分。現在，業務主管們說他們正在利用一個新的網絡工具，稱為「預測市場」（Prediction market）。他們使用這些市場，並透過挖掘員工的集體洞察力，來轉變他們公司內部見解的創造力與執行力。這些市場往往比專業調查員或市場研究員更準確。看見預測市場的潛力，許多公司如奇異（General Electric）和惠普（Hewlett-Packard）等正利用它們來試著改善預測、降低風險以及加速創新。企業預測市場的運作方式如下：玩家，亦即員工和潛在的外部人士，使用虛擬貨幣在網際網路上下賭注，並且匿名地投注。他們打賭他們所認為的將會實際發生，而不是他們希望的將會發生或者老闆想要的將會發生。給最準確玩家的報酬通常是適度的獎品、現金或一台iPod。預測市場背後的想法是：由許多人收集而得的知識幾乎肯定是比個人或小團體，甚至是專家都還要準確。雖然預測市場愈來愈普及，但仍然存在一個重要的問題。那就是，預測市場是否是一個主要的創新方式以收集來自員工的訊息，或者是可靠答案的主要來源。我們需要對這個概念作更多的測試來看看它是如何發生的。