28. (5%) From the general knowledge, the..-阿摩線上測驗
28. (5%) From the general knowledge, the population occurrence rate of asthma is 0.1
for children who visit hospitals. A pediatrician moved his clinic to a new place and
he found 9 children with asthma among 50 appointments in his first day at the new
place. If the 50 appointments are considered as Bernoulli random variables with O
and 1 outcomes, the total number of asthma children, indicated as X, should follow
a Binomial distribution with probability 0.1 under the general condition. He then
makes the following guesses. Which one is a correct inference for the occurrence
rate at the new place?
(A) If the occurrence rate holds the same as other places, the standard deviation of
each Bernoulli random variable in this problem is . The
standard deviation of X should be 50 x 0.3=15
(B) Since 9/50=0.18 is greater than 0.1, there must be an increase of the occurrence
rate
(C) If the occurrence rate is greater than 0.1, we should also see the proportion of
asthma children to be greater than 0.1 in the next day
(D) Since P(X=9)=0.033 is smaller than 0.05, we will decide this as an unusual
situation, and the evidence supports an increased occurrence rate. The threshold 0.05
can be applied when the number of appointments is 70 in a day
(E) Since P(X≧9)=0.058 is greater than 0.05, we do not have to worry too much
about the situation, and it might be a random fluctuation from day to day. The
threshold 0.05 can be applied when the number of appointments is 70 in a day