試題詳解

A Bayesian approach can be used to revise probabilities that a prospect field will produce oil. In one case, geologica! assessment indicates a 25% chance that the field will produce oil. Further, there is an 80% chance that particular well will strike oil given that oil is present in the prospect filed. Suppose that one well is drilled on the field and it comes up dry. What is the probability that the prospect filed will produce oi??
(A)0.0333
(B)0.0425
(C)0.0625
(D)0.0675