申論題

5. Suppose there are two types of drives, safe and unsafe. An insurance company knows that 50% of drivers are unsafe, and an unsafe driver has a 40% chance of having an accident each year, but a safe driver has only a 10% chance of an accident each year. However, the company does not know whether a new policy holder is safe or unsafe. Assume that for a given driver, accidents are independent (and that drivers never have more than one accident).

(a) What is the probability that a new policy holder has an accident the first year?
Answer=__(M)__.