題組內容

II. (20%) Suppose that you want to develop a program to identify a presidential candidate based on the words they use in their speeches. You have collected a sample of transcripts from each presidential candidate's recent speeches, and candidate A's speeches make up 10% of the sample. Suppose the proportion of A's speeches that have the following five words are given below.

Assume the proportions of other candidates' speeches that have the same words are

(a) If a transcript from the sample includes the word "great", what is the probability that this speech is given by candidate A? Should your program label this transcript as candidate A's speech?